Regular play vs. the Tournament of Champions

The 2014 Tournament of Champions featured a first in Jeopardy! history - the top three players in the qualifying rankings (most games won, then most money won) reached the final. This got me thinking about how players in various positions coming into the ToC perform in the tournament. Is it "chalk" - that is, does better performance in regular play correlate with success against the top players head-to-head? Or is it "a chip and a chair" - the important thing is just getting into the field of fifteen, because once you're there, anything can happen?

When The Final Wager was active, its all-time standings pagehad a neat searching feature - you could input a year (i.e. "2014"), and it would return the competitors in that year's ToC, which could then be sorted. This revealed some interesting points. For example, in the first Tournament of Champions in November 1985, the two players with the lowest winnings totals in regular play got to the final. When Rachael Schwartz became the first woman to win the ToC in 1994, she was the last player in (among those qualifying through regular play). It looks like the answer to the question I posed above is a little of both - players among the top three winners in a ToC have a better chance of reaching the final, along with the player in the number eight position. But other than that, finals positions are fairly evenly distributed. Note also that this doesn't take into account how players were matched up in quarterfinal and semifinal games.

At first glance, this thing does look kind of like a blob of earth tones, punctuated by specks of gold, silver, and bronze. A way to interpret it is by looking at the column for each ToC as the "leaderboard" for that tournament, with the numbered rows representing those qualifying from regular play, and the automatic qualifiers at the bottom, in chronological order of when they won their tournaments. Hovering over the text in a cell reveals the identity of the player occupying that rank in that ToC. For example, placing the mouse over the "1" in the "1" row for the 1986 ToC, you will see "Chuck Forrest: 5 wins, $72,800". Additionally, below the notes, a separate table for each ToC can be accessed; click the link for each to show or hide it.

Rank 1985 (S2) 1986 (S3) 1987 (S4) 1988 (S5) 1989 (S6) 1990 (S7) 1991 (S8) 1992 (S9) 1993 (S10) 1994 (S11) 1995 (S12) 1996 (S13) 1998 (S14) 1999 (S15) 2000 (S16)
1 SF 1 SF 2 3 SF SF 3 SF SF 2 QF 1 1 SF
2 QF SF 3 QF QF 1 QF QF 2 SF SF 1 QF SF 1
3 QF 2 2 SF QF SF QF QF 1 QF SF 3 3 QF 2
4 SF SF 1 SF SF 2 QF 1 QF SF SF QF SF QF QF
5 QF SF QF 3 SF SF SF QF SF SF QF SF QF SF QF
6 2 QF QF SF QF QF QF SF SF SF 3 QF SF SF SF
7 SF QF QF QF QF QF 2 SF QF QF QF SF 2 QF 3
8 QF SF SF 1 SF 3 1 QF SF SF 1 2 QF SF SF
9 SF 3 QF SF QF SF SF QF QF QF QF SF SF 2 QF
10 QF SF SF QF 2 QF QF SF QF QF SF SF SF SF SF
11 SF QF QF QF SF SF SF SF SF 3 QF QF SF QF QF
12 SF QF SF SF QF QF SF 2 QF 1 SF QF QF 3
13 QF QF SF QF QF
14 1 QF SF
15 3 SF
College 1 QF SF QF SF 2 QF SF QF QF SF
QF
Teen SF QF SF SF QF SF QF QF SF SF QF QF
SF SF
Senior QF SF SF QF 3 SF 3 QF QF QF

Rank 2001 (S18) 2003 (S19) 2004 (S21) 2006 (S22) 2007 (S24) 2009 (S25) 2010 (S26) 2011 (S28) 2013 (S29) 2014 (S31) 2015 (S32) 2017 (S34) 2019 (S36) 2021 (S37) 2022 (S39) 2024 (S40) 2025 (S41)
1 QF 2 2 SF QF 1 SF 2 SF 3 2 3 1 SF 1 QF 3
2 SF SF QF QF QF 2 2 SF 2 2 QF QF QF 2 SF QF 2
3 SF SF SF SF SF QF SF 1 SF 1 1 1 QF QF SF 2 SF
4 SF 1 QF SF QF SF SF SF QF QF 3 SF SF SF QF QF QF
5 2 SF 3 QF SF 3 SF QF SF SF SF SF QF 1 QF QF QF
6 3 QF QF SF QF SF 3 QF QF SF SF QF QF SF QF 3 SF
7 QF SF SF SF SF SF QF QF 3 QF QF SF SF QF QF QF SF
8 QF 3 QF 3 1 QF QF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF SF
9 1 QF SF QF SF SF QF SF SF SF SF 2 SF SF QF QF QF
10 QF SF QF 2 SF QF 1 SF QF QF SF QF QF QF QF QF SF
11 SF SF 1 QF QF QF SF QF QF QF QF QF QF QF 2 SF QF
12 QF QF SF 1 SF SF QF QF SF SF SF SF 3 SF 1 QF
13 QF QF SF SF 2 SF 3 QF 2 QF QF QF QF
14 SF QF QF QF QF SF QF QF
15 QF QF QF 1
16 QF SF QF
17 SF QF QF
18 SF QF
19 QF QF
College SF QF SF QF 3 QF SF QF QF QF SF SF QF QF
QF QF QF SF SF
SF
Champs. WC QF QF
SF SF
QF
QF
QF
QF
Celeb SF
Teachers / Profs QF QF QF QF SF 3 QF 3
1 QF
Second Chance QF
QF

Rank 1 2 3 SF QF
1 6 6 5 11 4
2 3 7 1 8 13
3 5 4 2 12 9
4 3 1 1 15 12
5 1 1 3 15 12
6 0 1 4 13 14
7 0 2 2 11 17
8 4 1 3 17 7
9 1 2 1 15 13
10 1 2 0 13 16
11 1 1 1 11 18
12 3 1 2 13 11
13 0 2 1 4 11
14 1 0 0 3 7
15 1 0 1 1 3
16 0 0 0 1 2
17 0 0 0 1 2
18 0 0 0 1 1
19 0 0 0 0 2
College 1 1 1 12 17
Champs. WC 0 0 0 2 6
Celeb 0 0 0 1 0
Teachers 1 0 2 1 6
Teen 0 0 0 8 6
Senior 0 0 2 3 5
Second Chance 0 0 0 0 2

Notes:

Winners of the College Championship, inaugurated in Season 5, have always qualified into the next ToC. Vinita Kailasanath (2001) and Joey Beachum (2008) deferred their bids to the following ToC due to other commitments. Jaskaran Singh, the winner of the 2022 National College Championship (an ABC primetime limited series), qualified into the Season 39 ToC. The Season 39 High School Reunion Tournament, whose winner qualified into the Season 40 ToC, is included in this category.

Winners of the Teachers Tournament, inaugurated in Season 27, have always qualified into the next ToC. The Season 38 Professors Tournament is included in this category. Larry Martin, the Season 34 Teachers champion, passed away prior to the 2019 ToC.

Winners of Champions Wildcard, inaugurated in Season 40, have always qualified into the next ToC.

Winners of Second Chance in Season 39 qualified directly into that season's ToC. In following seasons, winning Second Chance grants qualification to Champions Wildcard.

Winners of the primetime Celebrity Jeopardy! tournament on ABC, first held in 2022-23 (concurrent with Season 39), have always been extended an invitation into the next ToC.

Winners of the Teen Tournament, inaugurated in Season 3, qualified into the next ToC through Season 16. Since Season 17, Teen Tournament winners are not granted entry into the ToC, although the Seasons 17-21 Teen champions were invited to the Ultimate Tournament of Champions.

Winners of the Senior Tournament, held in Seasons 3-12, qualified into the next ToC.

Clue values were doubled to their current amounts on November 26, 2001. Three players in the Season 19 ToC (Alan Bailey, Mark Dawson, and Trevor Norris) played before this doubling, and their seeding is based on their winnings being doubled; their scores are noted by asterisks next to their dollar figures when you hover over them.

By individual Tournament of Champions

1st ToC — Season 2 — November 1985

2nd ToC — Season 3 — November 1986

3rd ToC — Season 4 — November 1987

4th ToC — Season 5 — November 1988

5th ToC — Season 6 — November 1989

6th ToC — Season 7 — November 1990

7th ToC — Season 8 — November 1991

8th ToC — Season 9 — November 1992

9th ToC — Season 10 — November 1993

10th ToC — Season 11 — November 1994

11th ToC — Season 12 — November 1995

12th ToC — Season 13 — November 1996

13th ToC — Season 14 — February 1998

14th ToC — Season 15 — February 1999

15th ToC — Season 16 — May 2000

16th ToC — Season 18 — Octover-November 2001

17th ToC — Season 19 — May 2003

18th ToC — Season 21 — September-October 2004

19th ToC — Season 22 — May 2006

20th ToC — Season 24 — November 2007

21st ToC — Season 25 — March 2009

22nd ToC — Season 26 — May 2010

23rd ToC — Season 28 — November 2011

24th ToC — Season 29 — February 2013

25th ToC — Season 31 — November 2014

26th ToC — Season 32 — November 2015

27th ToC — Season 34 — November 2017

28th ToC — Season 36 — November 2019

29th ToC — Season 37 — May 2021

30th ToC — Season 39 — October-November 2022

31st ToC — Season 40 — February-March 2024

32nd ToC — Season 41 — January-February 2025

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