Z-Bracket 2014 (XII, if you will)

In the year since I last composed the Z-Bracket, I've made two moves and taken two new jobs, and suffered a very personal loss. I'm on a weird schedule right now that has delayed publication a couple of says. But we're ready to roll now, and by that, I mean we're ready to use this year's Z-Ratings through March 16 as the foundation for figuring out which sixty-eight teams I'd select, and how I'd match them up. (Summary of previous brackets | Jump to this year's bracket)

Selecting the field

Step 1: the automatic bids.

Step 2: the at-large bids.

Seeding the teams

The first round

• The last and next-to-last at-large teams will play in the first round, as will the third-to-last and fourth-to-last at-large teams. The bottom four seeds will be paired 65 v. 66 and 67. v. 68. (This is the change specified by the NCAA.)
• The seed that teams in the "First Four" will play for is determined by the field ranking of the higher-ranked team. That ranking will also determine precedence for the placement of the winners of the first-round games into the "main" 64-team bracket.
• Teams scheduled to play Wednesday, March 19 MUST be assigned to a Friday/Sunday pod for the second and third rounds. Teams playing on Tuesday, March 18 can be sent to either a Thursday/Saturday or Friday/Sunday pod.
• In the event that other principles create conflict (particularly those concerning intra-conference matchups), the First Four pairings may be altered, but only as a last resort. Since the principles now allow rules regarding intra-conference matchups to be relaxes with respect to the teams in the First Four, this is no longer required.

Creating the seed list

Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team		Seed	Rk	FR	Team
1	1	1	Wichita State		5	17	17	UCLA		9	33	33	Virginia Commonwealth		13	85	51	Western Michigan
	2	2	Florida			18	18	Oklahoma			34	34	Arizona State			94	52	Manhattan
	3	3	Arizona			19	19	Connecticut			35	35	Gonzaga			99	53	Tulsa
	4	4	Villanova			20	20	Baylor			36	36	Kansas State			104	54	New Mexico State
2	5	5	Syracuse		6	21	21	Texas		10	37	37	Stanford		14	109	55	Delaware
	6	6	Iowa State			22	22	New Mexico			38	38	Providence			114	56	North Carolina Central
	7	7	Kansas			23	23	Ohio State			39	39	George Washington			121	57	Mercer
	8	8	Wisconsin			24	24	Pittsburgh			40	40	Iowa			132	58	Louisiana - Lafayette
3	9	9	San Diego State		7	25	25	North Carolina		11	41	41	Xavier		15	135	59	Eastern Kentucky
	10	10	Michigan			26	26	Oregon			42	42	Nebraska			143	60	Milwaukee
	11	11	Virginia			27	27	Saint Louis			43	43	Saint Joseph's			181	61	Weber State
	12	12	Creighton			28	28	Kentucky			44 45	44 45	Utah Tennessee			183	62	American
4	13	13	Michigan State		8	29	29	Colorado		12	46 47	46 47	St. John's Minnesota		16	196	63	Cal Poly
	14	14	Duke			30	30	Oklahoma State			55	48	Stephen F. Austin			221	64	Wofford
	15	15	Louisville			31	31	Massachusetts			62	49	Harvard			225 231	65 66	Coastal Carolina Mount St. Mary's
	16	16	Cincinnati			32	32	Memphis			75	50	North Dakota State			233 265	67 68	Albany Texas Southern

Key:
Rk = overall ranking by the Z-Ratings.
FR = Field ranking - the ranking of the team among the field of 68.

Another good year with the seeding, with only two major seeding discrepancies, one in each direction (VCU too high, Pitt too low). Some might have an issue with Wichita State being the top overall seed, given their weak strength of schedule. It's a point well taken this year, due to the shortcoming of the Z-Ratings in handling an undefeated team (the first time I've had to do so since I've been keeping the ratings). I considered moving the γ (weighting of tied games) to a higher figure than the 0.05 I've used in the final weeks of the season, but for the sake of consistency, I'm leaving it there and not making any ad hoc adjustment. WSU is the number three overall in the actual bracket, so it's not like there was a massive gulf between my assessment of the Shockers and that of the committee (as there was with one-loss Murray State two years ago).

Establishing the bracket

As has always been the case, the bracket is built using the principles established by the selection committee. They've changed a bit this time around, what with all the conference shuffling that transpired in the previous offseason:

• The point at which teams from the same conference can meet depends on how many times they've already squared off:
  • Three or more times - regional final (round of 8).
  • Twice - regional semifinal (round of 16).
  • Once or not at all - third round (round of 32).
• The first four teams from a conference go to different regionals, provided they are seeded on the first four lines
• Teams seeded Nos. 1 thru 4 will not be put at a severe "home-court disadvantage" in the second round (the round of 64).
• A team cannot play in an arena where it has played more than three regular season games, excluding conference tournaments (i.e. any home court).
• A team cannot play at a site where its school is hosting. At the regional level, we can't place Memphis in the South or St. John's in the East. For the first weekend of the tournament, the only team affected is San Diego State, which can't play in San Diego.
• If two teams from the same region are in contention for the same slot, the one with the higher rating remains in its region. (The guidelines say "true seed," formerly "S-Curve"; we instead use our ratings, as they produced our seeds.)
• If necessary, a team's seed can be adjusted up or down one spot to meet the principles; as much as I hope to try to get through a bracket without doing this, I always end up having to. As was true last year, the committee voted itself the ability to move a team two lines from its true seed in "extraordinary circumstances."

We also adhere to the bracketing procedure outlined in the championship handbook (also at the link just above). As always, the three "additional considerations" listed after the procedure (relating to rematches of games from the regular season and last year's championship, and moving teams out of their natural region an inordinate number of times) and are not used in the construction of the Z-Bracket.

Step 1: Place the No. 1 seeds, and pair the regional winners for the national semifinals.

Step 2: Place the No. 2 seeds.

Step 3: Place the No. 3 seeds.

Step 4: Place the No. 4 seeds.

Step 5: Check for conflicts and balance in the Nos. 1 through 4 seeds.

Step 6: Assign first and second round sites.

Going in the same order as they were placed into the bracket, we assign the top 16 to the eight opening weekend sites. St. Louis, MO: Wichita State, Kansas
Orlando, FL: Florida, Michigan State
San Diego, CA: Arizona, Cincinnati
Buffalo, NY: Villanova, Syracuse
Milwaukee, WI: Iowa State, Wisconsin
Spokane, WA: San Diego State, Louisville
Raleigh, NC: Michigan, Virginia
San Antonio, TX: Creighton, Duke

Step 7: Place the No. 5 through 16 seeds.

Step 7a: Place the No. 5 seeds. (Available sites: Orlando, San Antonio, San Diego, Spokane)

Step 7b: Place the No. 6 seeds. (Available sites: Raleigh [2], San Antonio, Spokane)

Step 7c: Place the No. 7 seeds. (Available sites: Buffalo [2], Milwaukee, St. Louis)

Step 7d: Place the No. 8 seeds. (Available sites: Buffalo, Orlando, San Diego, St. Louis)

Step 7e: Place the No. 9 seeds. (Available sites: Buffalo, Orlando, San Diego, St. Louis)

Step 7f: Place the No. 10 seeds. (Available sites: Buffalo [2], Milwaukee, St. Louis)

Step 7g: Place the No. 11 seeds. (Available sites: Raleigh [2], San Antonio, Spokane)

Step 7h: Place the No. 12 seeds. (Available sites: Orlando, San Antonio, San Diego, Spokane)

Step 7i: Place the No. 13 seeds. (Available sites: Orlando, San Antonio, San Diego, Spokane)

Step 7j: Place the No. 14 seeds. (Available sites: Raleigh [2], San Antonio, Spokane)

Step 7k: Place the No. 15 seeds. (Available sites: Buffalo [2], Milwaukee, St. Louis)

Step 7l: Place the No. 16 seeds. (Available sites: Buffalo, Orlando, San Diego, St. Louis)

Step 8: Re-check the entire bracket for conflicts.

• Arizona State / UCLA — January 12
• Oklahoma State / Baylor — February 1, February 17
• Utah / Oregon — January 2
• Texas / Iowa State — January 18, February 18
• Nebraska / Wisconsin — March 9
• Xavier / Providence — January 25, February 8

MIDWEST (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)				SOUTH (FedExForum, Memphis)
1	Wichita State	Scottrade Center St. Louis, MO		Amway Center Orlando, FL	Florida	1
16					Wofford	16
8	Colorado				Oklahoma State	8
9	Kansas State				Virginia Commonwealth	9
5	Connecticut	Amway Center Orlando, FL		Spokane Vet. Mem. Arena Spokane, WA	Baylor	5
12	Harvard					12
4	Michigan State				Louisville	4
13	Manhattan				Tulsa	13
3	Creighton	AT&T Center San Antonio, TX		PNC Center Raleigh, NC	Virginia	3
14	North Carolina Central				Mercer	14
6	Texas				Ohio State	6
11	Saint Joseph's					11
7	North Carolina	BMO Harris Bradley Center Milwaukee, WI		Scottrade Center St. Louis, MO	Oregon	7
10	Iowa				George Washington	10
2	Iowa State				Kansas	2
15	Eastern Kentucky				Milwaukee	15
			FINAL FOUR (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX) Midwest v. East South v. West
EAST (Madison Square Garden, New York City)				WEST (Honda Center, Anaheim)
1	Villanova	First Niagara Center Buffalo, NY		Viejas Arena San Diego, CA	Arizona	1
16					Cal Poly	16
8	Massachusetts				Memphis	8
9	Arizona State				Gonzaga	9
5	UCLA	Viejas Arena San Diego, CA		AT&T Center San Antonio, TX	Oklahoma	5
12	North Dakota State				Stephen F. Austin	12
4	Cincinnati				Duke	4
13	New Mexico State				Western Michigan	13
3	Michigan	PNC Center Raleigh, NC		Spokane Vet. Mem. Arena Spokane, WA	San Diego State	3
14	Delaware				Louisiana - Lafayette	14
6	New Mexico				Pittsburgh	6
11	Xavier				Nebraska	11
7	Kentucky	First Niagara Center Buffalo, NY		BMO Harris Bradley Center Milwaukee, WI	Saint Louis	7
10	Providence				Stanford	10
2	Syracuse				Wisconsin	2
15	American				Weber State	15
FIRST ROUND (UD Arena, Dayton) - Tuesday				FIRST ROUND (UD Arena, Dayton) - Wednesday
St. John's		(to South #12)		(to South #11)	Utah
Minnesota					Tennessee
Albany		(to East #16)		(to Midwest #16)	Coastal Carolina
Texas Southern					Mount St. Mary's

Bells and whistles

Earlier, I said that I wasn't adjusting Wichita State's rating or seeding due to its rating. One effect that will have, however, is that I'm forgoing bracket simulations due to the expectation that the results will be skewed in favor of the Shockers. Doing a bracket with a much more significant γ would reorder the teams and change the bracket we've already made.

Acknowledgements

That's all for this year - this thing is already late enough as it is. Thanks, and let's hope Cornell gets back on the upswing in 2014-15 (which is almost assured, since the Big Red can't fall much further).

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